The cost of putting food on the table is soaring.

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The Iran war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy and industrial chokepoints.  

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The first-order effects are obvious: higher fuel prices, transport costs and grocery bills. Global food prices rose 2.4% in March, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

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But the second-order effects may be even more important.

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·        Petrochemical disruption is pushing up the cost of plastics and polymers used in everything from food packaging to auto parts.

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·        Fertiliser shortages risk lower crop yields later this year, particularly if farmers respond to higher costs by using less fertiliser or switching crops.

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·        Industrial production is slowing. Germany has already cut its 2026 growth forecast in half, from 1.0% to 0.5%.

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·        Airlines are cutting routes as jet fuel prices spike. Lufthansa alone has announced 20,000 short-haul flight cancellations through October.

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And then there is helium: rarely discussed, but essential. Qatar accounts for roughly one-third of global helium supply, and helium is critical for MRI machines, semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace and other high-tech applications.

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This is not simply about filling up your tank or paying more at the supermarket... it’s a reminder that the global economy is built on supply chains which, when broken, have real-world consequences.

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And the longer the conflict continues, the more pronounced these consequences are likely to become.

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For investors, this type of supply-side shock points to lower growth, higher inflation, and rising corporate default risk.

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So be prepared, because in this environment, lending discipline, solid collateral, and structural protections matter.

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As Buffett says, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.”